2010—2019年云南省玉溪市流感季节性与动态变化分析

Analysis of seasonality and dynamic changes of influenza in Yuxi,Yunnan province from 2010 to 2019

目的分析玉溪市流感季节性特征及变化趋势,为制定防控策略提供科学依据。方法采用集中度和圆形分布法分析季节性,年估计百分比变化分析流行特征。结果玉溪市流感年均发病率11.45/10万,总体呈上升趋势,年均增长速度36.21%(95%CI:12.48~49.32,P<0.05);发病人群以15岁以下为主,尤其0~4岁组,发病率最高(57.80/10万),年均增长速度68.04%(95%CI:31.91~71.89,P<0.05)。男性发病率高于女性(x^(2)=6.05,P<0.05)。澄江市(33.20/10万)和峨山县(31.10/10万)发病率最高,元江县发病率年均增长速度最快57.62%(95%CI:19.24~71.76,P<0.05)。发病高峰在冬季,发病率68.61/10万,年均增长速度6.93%(95%CI:1.80~11.60,P<0.05)。季节分布的M值和γ值分别在0.37~0.89和0.38~0.89之间波动。发病高峰日为12月31日,高峰期在10月24日至次年2月24日,流行期8月28日至次年4月25日。结论各地区应根据疫情流行变化趋势采取综合性防控措施,以降低发病水平,避免疫情持续蔓延。

Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics and trends of influenza in Yuxi city,so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods Concentration ratio and circular distribution methods were used to analyze seasonal characteristics.The estimating average annual percent changes were used to analyze epidemic characteristics.Results The average annual incidence of influenza in Yuxi city was 11.45/100,000 with an overall trend of increasing.The average annual growth rate was 36.21%(95%CI:12.48-49.32,P<0.05).The mainly affected population group was under 15 years old group,especially the 0-4 years old group with the highest incidence rate(57.80/100,000)and an average annual growth rate of 68.04%(95%CI:31.91-71.89,P<0.05).The morbidity of male was higher than that of female(x^(2)=6.05,P<0.05).Chengjiang city(33.20/100,000)and Eshan county(31.10/100,000)had the high incidence rates while the highest average annual increase rate of incidence(57.62%)was in Yuanjiang county(95%CI:19.24-71.76,P<0.05).The peak incidence was in winter with an incidence rate of 68.61/100,000 and an average annual growth rate of 6.93%(95%CI:1.80-11.60,P<0.05).The M value andγvalue of the seasonal distribution fluctuate between 0.37-0.89 and 0.38-0.89,respectively.The peak date of incidence was December 31 and the peak period was from October 24 to February 24 of the next year.The epidemic period was from August 28 to April 25 of the next year.Conclusions All regions should adopt comprehensive prevention and control measures in accordance with the trend of the epidemic situation to reduce the level of incidence and avoid the continuous spread of the epidemics.