逆全球化真的能带来英美经济的根本性复苏吗?

Can Anti-globalization Actually Rebound British and American Economy?

采用2013年英国前首相卡梅伦首次提出脱欧公投作为准自然实验,利用政策评估方法中的合成控制法,分析了“脱欧”对英国经济增长的影响。研究发现,“脱欧”短期内对英国经济增长的阻碍作用十分明显;长期来说,也使英国经济持续下滑,逆全球化不能带来英国和美国经济的真正复苏。同时,采用倍差法、改变处理组安慰剂检验方法、RMPSE稳健性检验,以及排列序稳健性检验的方法,对以上结果进行了稳健性检验并分析其有效性后发现,实证结论依然可靠。逆全球化不能带来英国和美国经济的真正复苏,但英国和美国仍然选择逆全球化的真正原因是其国内利益分配不当、对国际霸主地位的错误诉求、国际政治经济上的冷战思维、单边主义及内部治理不当加剧经济衰退、社会矛盾引起民粹主义思潮、“现代化输家”思潮的涌起等危机及其背后资本主义生产方式的痼疾等。应从重塑全球治理机制,构建合理的利益合作机制,促进技术进步与创新,融入互联化、共享经济、人工智能技术创新等方面寻找全球化有序健康发展的出路。

The impact of Brexit on UK economic growth is studied in a quasi-natural experiment using the synthetic control method for the policy evaluation,which was first proposed by former UK Prime Minister David Cameron in 2013.The study finds that Brexit has a significant impact on the growth of the UK economy in the short term,and in the long term,the UK economy continues to decline,and reverse globalization can not bring about a real recovery of the UK and US economies.At the same time,the results are tested and analyzed using the multiplicative difference method,the placebo test for changing treatment groups,the RMPSE robustness test,and the ranked order robustness test,and the findings are found to be robust.It is further found that reverse globalization cannot bring about real economic recovery in either the UK or the US,but the real reasons why the UK and the US still choose to reverse globalization are their misallocation of domestic interests,false claims to international hegemony,cold war mentality in international politics and economy,unilateralism and internal misgovernance that exacerbate economic recession,social conflicts that give rise to populist thinking,the crisis of“modernization losers”and the chronic problems of the capitalist mode of production.The way out for the orderly and healthy development of globalization should be reshaping the global governance mechanism,building a reasonable mechanism for integrating interests,promoting technological progress and transforming,and integrating into the interconnected,sharing economy,and technological innovation in artificial intelligence.