需求侧视角下中国隐含能源消费量及强度的影响因素

Research on influencing factors of China’s energy consumption and intensity:Based on the demand-side perspective

当前中国对能耗总量和强度实行了"双控",在需求侧改革背景下,分析中国能源消费总量与能源强度变动的影响因素是制定有效能源政策的基础。基于最终需求视角测算了2012、2015和2017年中国5类最终需求的隐含能源消费及其强度,使用结构分解分析(SDA)和双层归因分析探究影响中国能源消费总量和能源强度变动的因素,并针对求解过程中可能存在的零值与负值问题给出了两种处理方法。结果表明:(1)中国近一半的能源消耗是由于满足资本形成需求而产生的,资本形成和出口的隐含能源强度是全国能源强度的1.2倍以上,而消费的隐含能源强度低于全国能源强度;(2)能源效率效应和生产结构效应分别是导致2012—2015年和2015—2017年全国能源消费总量及强度下降的主要因素;(3)第一层归因分析发现各影响因素主要通过影响资本形成需求进而影响全国能源消费总量及强度;(4)第二层归因分析发现重制造业和建筑业是影响资本形成需求变动的主要行业。因此未来从需求侧控制能源消耗具有更大潜力,经济增长模式需要进一步从投资和出口驱动向消费驱动转变,加快促进国内大循环。同时要注重优化居民消费结构,推动其向绿色化、低碳化和节能化转变。

At present,China has implemented the“double control”on total energy consumption and energy intensity.Under the background of demand-side reform,analyzing the influencing factors of total energy consumption and energy intensity is the basis for formulating effective energy policy in China.Based on the perspective of final demand,this study measured the embodied energy consumption and embodied energy intensity of five types of final demand in China in 2012,2015,and 2017.Structural decomposition analysis(SDA)and two-level attribution analysis were used to explore the factors that affect China’s total energy consumption and energy intensity.Two methods were proposed to deal with the problem of zero value and negative value.The results show that:(1)Nearly half of China’s energy consumption is due to meeting the demand for capital formation.The embodied energy intensity of capital formation and export is more than 1.2 times that of the country average,while the embodied energy intensity of consumption is lower than that of the average.(2)The energy efficiency effect and the production structure effect are the main factors leading to the decline of the total energy consumption and its intensity in 2012-2015 and 2015-2017 respectively.(3)The first level of attribution analysis found that the influencing factors mainly affect the capital formation demand,and then affect the total energy consumption and its intensity.(4)The second level of attribution analysis found that heavy manufacturing and construction industries are the main industries that affect the change of capital formation demand.Therefore,it has greater potential to control energy consumption from the demand side in the future,the economic growth model needs to be further changed from investment and export-driven to consumption-driven,and to speed up the promotion of domestic circulation.At the same time,we should pay attention to optimizing the consumption structure of residents,and promote its transformation to green,low-carbon,and energy-saving.