水资源价值模糊数学模型研究进展

Progress of research on fuzzy mathematical model of water resources value

强化水资源管理、推进水资源有偿使用制度改革、支持自然资源资产负债表编制都需要以水资源价值研究为基础。作为应用较为广泛的水价值研究方法,对于水资源价值模糊数学模型的研究进展尚未形成综述报告,显然不利于模型的发展和应用。本文通过对1995—2019年发表文献的统计和归纳,分别从研究目的、指标选择、赋权方法、评价标准确定、价值计算等多个角度,梳理分析了水资源价值模糊数学模型的研究进展。结果发现:模型应用与水资源政策发布表现出密切的关联性;指标系统愈渐丰富,但水质、人均水资源量、人均GDP和人口密度仍为应用最广泛的指标;赋权方法上,组合赋权法是模型的重要发展方向;评价标准的确定依据,包含国际标准和国内现状2类,各有优劣但要及时更新和调整;受低水价政策影响,评价结果与现行水价存在一定差距,但为中国水价改革提供了理论支撑。该模型应用案例较多、实用性较强,并在应用和发展中不断优化,是水资源价值研究的重要方法,未来研究中应进一步夯实理论基础、深化研究尺度、加强实践应用。

Strengthening water resources management,promoting the reform of the paid use system of water resources,and the preparation of Natural Resource Balance Sheet require accounting for the value of water resources.The fuzzy mathematical model of water resources value is a widely used method in water value research.However,there is no existing comprehensive review on the progress of research on the model,which is not conducive to the development and application of the model.This article analyzed and evaluated the research progress of fuzzy mathematical model of water resources value through statistics and induction of published literature from 1995 to 2019.The analysis and evaluation are based on multiple perspectives,such as research purpose,indicator selection,weighting method,evaluation standard,and calculation method.The results indicate that:(1)The application of the model is closely related to the release of water resources policies.(2)The indicator system of the model is becoming increasingly more abundant,but water quality,per capita water resources,per capita GDP,and population density are still the most widely used indicators.(3)In terms of weighting methods,combination weighting method is an important development direction of the model.(4)The evaluation criteria are determined based on international standards and domestic status quo,which have their own advantages and disadvantages,but they need to be updated and adjusted in time.(5)There is a certain gap between the evaluation result and the current water price,which is affected by the low water price policy,but it provides theoretical support for China’s water price reform.It is an important method for water resource value research.The model has many application cases and strong applicability,and has been continuously optimized in application and development.In the future,it is necessary to further consolidate its theoretical foundation,expanding the research scale,and strengthen the practical application.