2021—2022年中国宏观经济更新预测——提高中等收入群体收入增速的宏观经济效应分析

China’s Economic Forecast Update in 2021-2022: Macroeconomic Effects of Speeding up Income Growth for Middle Class Group

2021年上半年,中国经济整体运行在合理区间内,显示出中国经济稳中加固、稳中向好的态势。基于2021年二季度以来国内外经济环境的变化情况,应用中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM),对2021年三、四季度以及2022年四个季度的中国宏观经济主要指标进行了预测更新。结果表明:2021年,中国GDP增速预计为8.50%,较春季预测下调0.10个百分点;2022年,GDP预计增长5.51%。受国际大宗商品价格大幅上涨的影响,2021年PPI预计将上涨7.01%,涨幅较春季预测大幅上调5.23个百分点;猪肉价格的大幅回落抑制了CPI的涨幅,2021年CPI可能上涨0.86%,涨幅较春季预测下调0.08个百分点。居民实际收入增速反弹乏力,减缓了消费支出的增长,2021年社会消费品零售总额名义增速可能达到12.89%。模拟结果表明,提高居民收入增速,特别是加快提高中等收入群体的居民收入增速会产生更大、更持久的居民消费和经济增长效应。因此,为促进居民消费的稳定增长,下一阶段不仅需要加快调整宏观收入分配格局,更重要的是需要优化居民内部的收入分配格局,加快提高中等收入群体的收入增速。

The research team has updated forecasts on China’s macroeconomic outlook for 2021-2022 after taking into account the ongoing economic performance since Q22021.This paper is the 31 st forecast using the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM).The results show that:(1)The forecast for China’s GDP growth rate is 8.50%,revised down 0.10 percentage point in 2021 compared with the Spring forecast.(2)Due to the rapid increase in commodity price,PPI is expected to reach 7.01%,revised up 5.23 percentage points in 2021.A large decrease in food price would likely keep CPI at the level of 0.86%,0.08 percentage point lower than the Spring forecast.(3)Weak income growth momentum would continue to slow down consumption growth.The nominal growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to be 12.89%,revised down 3.22 percentage points in 2021 compared with the Spring forecast.The results from the simulation show that the government should speed up the household income growth rate,especially for the middle-income group,in order to boost household consumption and maintain a stable growth rate.