2020年台湾地区“二合一”选举网络舆论观察——基于大数据的量化研究视角

A Review of the Online Public Opinion Field of the 2020 “Two-in-One” Elections in Taiwan: Quantitative Research Perspective Based on Big Data

2020年的台湾地区"二合一"选举,民进党候选人蔡英文获得连任。在选举主要候选人的网络声量表现和相关议题方面,韩国瑜网络声量最大、相关议题最多,蔡英文社交媒体粉丝数最多,但粉丝数比网络声量更应是选举网络舆论战的争夺主战场;在岛内外重要事件方面,出现舆论事件"韩国瑜化"现象,同时蔡英文恶意炒作香港修例风波成为选举的最关键变量;在岛内重大政策方面,蔡英文在各大重要政策中的网络曝光量基本均高于韩国瑜。此次选举出现的三种传播模式"悲情传播""仇恨传播"和"恐惧传播"是解开此次台湾选举种种疑惑的关键钥匙。

In the 2020"two-in-one"elections in Taiwan,DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected.In terms of online voice performance and related issues of the main candidates in the elections,Han Kuo-yu had the largest online voice and touched on the most issues,while Tsai Ing-wen had the largest number of followers on social media,but the number of followers,rather than online voice,should have been the frontline of the election online public opinion battle.Regarding important events both on and off the island,there was the phenomenon of"Han Kuo-yufication"in public opinion events.At the same time,Tsai Ing-wen’s malicious hype about Hong Kong’s legislative amendments became the most critical variable in the elections.In terms of major policies on the island,Tsai Ing-wen’s online exposure in all major important policies was higher than Han Kuo-yu’s.The three modes of dissemination that emerged from the elections—"sad dissemination","hate dissemination"and"fear dissemination"—were the key to dissipating the doubts in the Taiwan elections.