中国对美国市场茶叶出口贸易波动成因分析——基于修正的CMS模型

Analysis on the Cause of Fluctuation of Tea Export Trade between China and the United States——Based on the Modified CMS Model

本研究在分析中国对美国市场茶叶出口贸易现状的基础上,利用修正的恒定市场份额(CMS)模型分析了2000—2019年中国对美国市场茶叶出口贸易波动的成因。结果表明,美国市场茶叶进口需求的增加是中国茶叶出口增长的最主要拉动力,而竞争力效应和二阶效应对中国茶叶出口增长起到了较强的逆向拉动作用。显示性比较优势指数(RCA)结果显示,近年来中国对美国市场出口的各类茶叶产品的竞争力均呈现下降趋势,此外中国茶叶出口结构不符合美国市场茶叶需求结构、茶叶生产成本提高等也抑制了中国对美国市场茶叶出口的增长。

Based on the analysis of the current situation of China’s tea export trade to the United States, this paper used a modified constant market share model(CMS) to study the causes of fluctuations of China’s tea export trade to US from 2000 to 2019. The results indicate that the increase of tea import demand in the US market was the most important driving force for the growth of China’s tea export, while the competitiveness effect and second-order effect played a strong reverse role. The results of RCA indicate that the export competitiveness of all kinds of Chinese tea in the US market tended to decline over recent years. In addition, the export structure of Chinese tea did not meet the demand structure of the US market, and the rise of tea production costs also hindered the growth of China’s tea export to the US market.