基于多智能体建模方法的人群应急疏散模型构建研究——以腾龙芳烃(漳州)有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故疏散为例

Research on building of crowd emergency evacuation model based on multi-agent modeling method——taking“4·6”explosion of Tenglong Aromatic Hydrocarbon(Zhangzhou)Co.,Ltd.as an example

为从更微观角度分析人群疏散过程中疏散行为及路网设计对疏散效果的影响,基于腾龙芳烃(漳州)有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故,构建多智能体人群应急疏散模型,模拟人群中个体群组、惯性、就近、从众、信息传播的行为决策及相互交互影响。结果表明:群组行为会严重影响应急疏散效果,在疏散路网两端避难所附近会出现明显拥堵现象,在疏散路网设计和避难所选择时,应尽可能避免出现极端汇流路段或节点;在应急培训中,应告知群众减少群组行为。研究结果可为人群应急疏散提供借鉴。

To analyze the influence of evacuation behavior and road network design on the evacuation effect in the crowd evacuation process from the more microcosmic perspective,a multi-agent crowd emergency evacuation model based on the“4·6”explosion of Tenglong Aromatic Hydrocarbon(Zhangzhou)Co.,Ltd.was constructed to simulate the behavioral decision-making and mutual interaction of individual group,inertia,proximity,herd and information propagation in the crowd.The results showed that the grouping behavior would seriously affect the emergency evacuation effect,and the obvious congestion phenomenon would occur near the shelters at both ends of the evacuation road network.When designing the evacuation road network and selecting the shelters,the extreme confluence sections or nodes should be avoided as much as possible.In the emergency training,the people should be informed to reduce the grouping behavior.The research results can provide a reference for the crowd emergency evacuation.