我国制造业垄断的福利损失测算--基于激发改革红利的视角

The Measurement of Welfare Losses from Monopoly of Chinese Manufacturing:Based on the Perspective of Stimulating Reform Dividends

本研究利用微观生产函数模型,测度了中国187个工业细分行业的市场势力水平;计算了不同行业因为市场势力造成的整体福利损失。模型的计量过程在大多数两位数代码行业都给出了显著而且稳健的市场势力估计结果。基于上述实证结果和财务数据,讨论了自由竞争、价格管制、补贴以及管制政策在不同行业对市场势力和垄断损失程度的影响。以此为依据,计算得出垄断行为在工业部门造成的损失高达2.3万亿,相当于2008年第二产业生产总值的15.85%,当年GDP的7.32%。研究发现,打破垄断可以释放巨大的改革红利,如果我国用10年的时间推进工业部门的反垄断改革,其改革红利每年至少可以带来0.73%的GDP增长。

Using the empirical industrial organization model based on micro production function,this paper estimates the markups of 187 industrial sectors in China and calculates the overall welfare loss due to market powers of different sectors.Our econometric models give significant and robust estimates of the markups of almost all two-digit sectors.According to the above empirical results and financial data,this paper discusses the impacts of free competition,price regulation,subsidies,and regulatory policies on the markups and monopoly losses of different sectors.On this basis,we calculate that the loss caused by monopoly behaviors in industrial sectors is as high as 2.3 trillion yuan,which is equivalent to 15.85%of the GDP of the second industry in 2008 and 7.32%of the GDP of the same year.Breaking monopolies can unleash huge reform dividend,and if China promotes the anti-monopoly reform of industrial sectors over a 10-year period,the reform dividend can at least bring about 0.73%of GDP growth per year.The results provide a decision-making basis for the government to formulate reasonable anti-monopoly and regulation strategies.