“双循环”大背景下中国制造业的国际贸易格局演变:事实与启示

The Evolution of the Foreign Trade Pattern of China’s Manufacturing Industry under the Dual Circulation:Facts and Revelations

文章以中国制造业成长为全球产业链及供应链重要枢纽的历史事实和塑造双重国际贸易圈的现实可能为出发点,利用中国海关数据和WIOT数据深入剖析“入世”以来中国制造业外贸市场主体构成及国际贸易活动规模、品种、价格、质量、价值分成和分工地位等多维属性的时空特征,提炼出中国制造业对外贸易格局演变的四大典型事实:一是贸易类型的贸易张力和贸易流向的贸易活力具有典型二元结构特征;二是中间品进口贸易化水平和生产型制成品出口高级化、多样化及市场认可度凸显;三是传统贸易圈和新兴贸易圈对中国制造业参与全球价值链的战略意义和现实贡献具有典型异质性;四是行业特征与新兴贸易圈市场属性的匹配度深刻影响制造业国际分工地位。文章据此提出要树立加工贸易和一般贸易沟通联动、传统贸易圈和新兴贸易圈共建共治的全局协调发展观。充分利用加工贸易的稳定性和一般贸易的自主性,传统贸易圈的价格稳定优势以及新兴贸易圈的品种创新优势和消费市场潜力,深度开发人力资本、技术资本和制度资本,为中国制造向中国智造及中国创造蜕变注入动力,推动中国制造业实现高质量、强韧性和可持续的自主发展。

In this paper,based on the historical facts of the growth of China’s manufacturing industry as an important hub of the global industrial chain and supply chain with the possibility of shaping a dual international trade circle,we deeply analyze the main body composition of China’s manufacturing foreign trade market since China’s accession to the WTO and the multi-dimensional attributes of trade activity scale,variety,price,quality,value sharing and division of labor status using Chinese customs data and WIOT data,and extract four typical facts of the evolution of China’s manufacturing foreign trade pattern.Firstly,the trade tension of foreign trade types and the trade vitality of trade flow have the characteristics of a typical dual structure.Secondly,the trade level of the intermediate goods import is obvious and the export of production-oriented finished products is advanced,diversified and market recognized.Then traditional trade circles and emerging trade circles have typical heterogeneity in the strategic significance and practical contribution of Chinese manufacturing to participate in global value chains.At last,the fit between industry characteristics and the market attributes of emerging trade circles has a profound impact on the international division of labor status of the manufacturing industry.According to the above conclusions,this article proposes to establish the overall coordinated development concept of communication and linkage between processing trade and general trade,and the joint construction and co-governance of traditional trade circles and emerging trade circles.On the one hand,we could make full use of the stability of processing trade and the independence of general trade,the price stability advantages of traditional trading circles,as well as the variety innovation advantages and consumer market potential of emerging trading circles,on the other hand,we could make deep development of human capital,technological capital and institutional capital for injecting impetus into Chinese manufacturing.Through these measures,China’s manufacturing industry would achieve high-quality,resilient and sustainable independent development.