摘要
为了准确掌握堆积层滑坡发展趋势,以其变形监测成果为基础。利用组合预测思路实现其发展趋势评价。实例分析表明:组合预测结果的相对误差均值最大仅为1.83%,说明其预测精度较高,并通过对比佐证分析,验证了该组合模型具有较好的可靠性和优越性,综合得出滑坡变形不仅具有上升趋势,且增加速率相对较大,需加强防治处理,避免成灾。通过研究,为堆积层滑坡发展趋势评价提供了一种思路,并为其防治奠定了理论基础,具有重要意义。
The purpose of this study is to accurately grasp the development trend of accumulation landslide.Based on its deformation monitoring results,the development trend evaluation is realized by using the combination prediction idea.The example analysis shows that the maximum mean value of the relative error of the combined prediction results is only 1.83%,indicating that the prediction accuracy is high.Through comparative evidence analysis,it is verified that the combined model has good reliability and superiority.It is concluded that the landslide deformation not only has an upward trend,but also has a relatively large increase rate.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and treatment to avoid disasters.This paper provides an idea for the evaluation of the development trend of accumulation landslide,and lays a theoretical foundation for its prevention and control.
作者
彭亮
田浩
白刚刚
霍宇翔
PENG Liang;TIAN Hao;BAI Gang-gang;HUO Yu-xiang(Qinghai Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology and Environ Geology Survey Institute, Xining 810008, China;Hydrogeological and Geothermal Geological Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province, Xining 810008, China;College of Environment and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)
出处
《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第5期1228-1235,共8页
Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41302243)
青海省中央引导地方科技发展资金资助项目(2021ZY014)。
关键词
库区滑坡
成灾演化
发展趋势
季节性Kendall检验
组合预测
reservoir area landslide
disaster evolution
development trend
seasonal Kendall test
combination prediction
