阿富汗命运转折与国际格局展望

Changing Situation in Afghanistan and International Prospect

2021年8月,阿富汗风云突变,塔利班以极快的速度重新掌控阿富汗。美国最后从阿富汗撤退的混乱局面给全世界留下了狼狈不堪的印象,"喀布尔时刻"对美国的国际声誉和地位,以及整个国际格局都带来了深远的影响。2021年9月16日,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所《国际经济评论》编辑部、中国世界经济学会联合组织召开"阿富汗命运转折与国际格局展望"研讨会。与会学者就阿富汗变局及其带来的影响,以及国际格局变化趋势展开了深入研讨。阿富汗变局及其代表的美国中东战略收缩带来中东整个安全结构发生变化,促使欧洲进一步思考战略自主的问题,将自身塑造成不同于中美的"第三种力量"。美国撤出阿富汗是止损,即有计划和有战略地收缩。中国需要明确阿富汗和中东地区对于中国的全球战略格局到底具有何种重要性,如何介入而不陷入。

The situation in Afghanistan changed abruptly in August 2021, with the Taliban sweeping thecountry to regain its control. The chaos of US’final withdrawal from Afghanistan has broughthome to the world the awkward situation facing Washington. The so-called Kabul Moment hashad a profound impact on the US’international reputation and status, as well as the entireinternational landscape. On September 16, 2021, the editorial board of the International Economic Review journal, published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics of theChinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the China Society of World Economics jointlyorganized a seminar themed Afghanistan’s Changing Fate and International LandscapeProspect. Participating scholars conducted in-depth discussions on the changes in Afghanistanand their impact, as well as the trend of changes in the international landscape. The changingsituation in Afghanistan and the contraction of the US’Middle East strategy, represented bythe US withdrawal, have brought about changes in the entire security structure of the MiddleEast, prompting Europe to re-assess the issue of strategic autonomy and possibility of it beingshaped as a third force apart from China and the United States. The US’withdrawal fromAfghanistan is its step to prevent itself from suffering more losses, which is a planned strategiccontraction. China needs to clarify the importance of Afghanistan and the Middle East to itsglobal strategic planning, and how to ensure it plays a role in regional construction while notbeing bogged down in it.