逆全球化背景下媒介舆论对中国出口贸易的影响研究

On the Impact of Public Opinions on China’s Export Trade in the Deglobalization Trend

在国际贸易方面,媒介舆论作为一种新型非关税壁垒,对中国出口贸易可以产生重要的影响。本文在逆全球化背景下,利用网络爬虫(Python)技术、自然语言处理(NLP)技术和情感分析技术对媒介舆论进行量化,定量分析媒介舆论环境变化对中国出口贸易的影响。实证检验得出,媒介舆论环境发生变化会对我国出口贸易产生一定影响。其中,舆论环境恶化会遏制中国出口,舆论环境改善则会显著促进中国出口。进一步将该影响力分解到产品层面进行考察时发现,舆论环境的改善将有助于工业制成品,尤其是高新技术产品的出口;而舆论环境的恶化则会从消费者层面产生负面影响。

The international economic and political game in today’s world is mainly reflected in soft power,especially the guiding,dissemination and influence of international public opinion in the Internet era.In terms of international trade,media public opinion,as a new type of non-tariff barrier,can have an important impact on China’s export trade.In the context of deglobalization,this paper uses Python,natural language processing(NLP)and sentiment analysis technologies to quantify China-related public opinions,and quantitatively analyze the impact of changes in China-related public opinions on China’s export trade.The empirical test concludes that changes in the public opinions related to China have a certain impact on China’s export trade.Specifically,the deterioration of the China-related public opinions curbs China’s exports,while the improvement significantly promotes China’s exports.When we further examine the impact at the product level,we find that better public opinions about China help the export of industrial products,especially high-tech products;while deteriorated public opinions have negative effect on the consumers.