基于多主体博弈协调的三峡枢纽通航性能评估

Navigation Performance Evaluation of the Three Gorges Hub Based on Multi-agent Game Theory Coordination

针对三峡-葛洲坝梯级枢纽航运交通压力大、通航能力不足等难题,提出运用多智能体建模技术模拟复杂、高耦合的联合通航作业,完成新规程背景下枢纽通航性能评估。结合博弈理论,从策略转换、效益函数等方面分析各通航设施间竞合关系,实现多智能体系统协调博弈控制。针对不同交通流设计多场景仿真实验,采用置信区间完成实验数据分析。结果表明现有梯级枢纽通航能力已接近极限,后续研究可围绕葛洲坝上游锚地展开,为后期新航道建设提供决策支撑。

In view of the problem of heavy traffic pressure and insufficient navigation capacity of the Three GorgesGezhou Dam Cascade Reservoirs,the multi-agent modelling technology is applied to simulate the complex and highly coupled joint navigation operation,in order to accomplish the navigation performance evaluation of the Three Gorges Hub under the new regulations.Combined with game theory,the cooperation and competition among each navigation facility is analyzed from the perspective of strategy conversion and benefit function,so as to realize the coordinated game theory control of multi-agent system.Multi-scenario simulation experiments are realized under different traffic flows,and the experimental data analysis is completed with the confidence interval.The results show that the navigation capacity of the existed cascade reservoirs has almost reached its limit and the follow-up research can be carried out around the upstream anchorage of Gezhou Dam,in order to provide decision-making support for the construction of new waterways in the future.