定制公交居民出行方式选择的影响因素

Factors influencing residents′travel mode selection considering customized shuttle bus

掌握影响定制公交选择概率的因素,对于定制公交的运营管理具有重要作用。结合广义Logit回归模型和条件Logit回归模型的混合模型,将居民个人属性与出行方案属性同时考虑进出行方式效用函数中。根据定制公交的在旅途距离及服务水平的设置定位,选取定制公交、出租车与常规公交作为出行选择集。运用问卷调查数据进行模型参数拟合,得到不同影响因素对于出行方式的边际效用和分布概率的影响。通过拟合结果,得到出行价格变量的系数在常规公交及定制公交1的效用函数中绝对值较大,分别为0.1954和0.1173,而在定制公交2和出租车的效用函数中绝对值较小,分别为0.1561和0.0571。行程时间变量在定制公交2和出租车效用函数中的绝对值较大,分别为0.0735和0.0807,在常规公交和定制公交1的效用函数中绝对值较小,分别为0.0204和0.0150。说明定制公交的服务需根据潜在乘客的出行价格及出行时间敏感度进行设置,研究结果对设置定制公交运营策略具有重要参考意义。

It is crucial for the operation and management of customized shuttle bus to acknowledge the factors influencing chosen rate.This study proposes a mixed model based on both generalized and conditional Logit models.Within the modeling structure,this study develops a utility function with the individual attributes of residents and travel scheme attributes.According to the travel distance and service level of customized shuttle bus,a set of customized shuttle bus,taxi,and public transit bus as options is determined.Based on stated preference data,the model estimation provides the marginal utility of and the distribution probability of the travel mode for different influencing factors.Results suggest that the absolute value of travel price variable coefficients in the utility function of the conventional bus and customized bus-1 are larger,which are 0.1954 and 0.1173,respectively,where in customized bus-2 and taxi is smaller,which are 0.1561 and 0.0571,respectively.The absolute values of travel time variables in the utility functions of the customized bus-2 and taxi are 0.0735 and 0.0807,respectively,where in conventional bus and customized bus-1 are 0.0204 and 0.0150,respectively.This implies that the customized bus service should be designed according to the travel price and travel time sensitivity of potential passengers.These results shed light on setting up customized bus operation strategies.