俄罗斯政治发展30年:特点、成效与前景

Thirty Years of Political Development in Russia:Features,Effects and Prospects

2021年是苏联解体30年,也是俄罗斯联邦作为国际法主体登上国际舞台30年。转型以来,俄罗斯政治发展的显著特点是,“单一中心政治权力”在与社会的互动中得以重建且不断固化,对经济活动和社会生活的控制不断强化,政治发展呈现出相当强的连续性。俄罗斯目前的单一中心政治权力模式及其与社会的“管制型”互动模式能够满足大资本和依赖国家的多数民众的诉求,国家主义与父爱主义相互建构,相互强化,但与俄罗斯社会存在的变革诉求存在明显张力。从绩效角度,单一中心政治权力及其与社会的“管制型”关系,足以维持政治社会稳定,但却一直没能解决发展问题。政治发展连续性的经济社会后果就是不发展或者发展缺失,这也是俄罗斯政治发展的另一个鲜明特点,同时也是俄罗斯当下和未来一个时期面临的最大风险。

It's been 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and,this year also marks the 30th anniversary that Russian Federation has been on the international stage as a subject of international law.Since the transition,the salient feature of Russia's political development is that the"single-center political power"has been rebuilt and continuously solidified in its interaction with the outside world,its control over economic activities and social life has been continuously strengthened,and political development has shown considerable continuity.Russia's current single-center political power model and its"regulatory"interaction model with society can satisfy the demands of large capital and the majority of the people who depend on the state.Nationalism and paternalism construct and reinforce each other,but there is a clear tension with the demands for change in Russian society.From the perspective of performance,the single-center political power and its"regulatory"relationship with society are sufficient to maintain political and social stability,but it has not been able to solve the development problem.The consequences of the continuity of political development are economic and social non-development or lack of development.This is another distinctive feature of Russia's political development,and it is also the biggest risk Russia faces now and in the future.