跨大西洋关系重塑背景下的俄罗斯对欧政策调整

Russia’s Europe Policy Adjustments in the Context of the Reshaping of Transatlantic Relations

跨大西洋关系的重塑进程是影响俄罗斯与欧洲关系的重要变量。在新形势下,俄从适应欧洲战略自主的“双重向度”出发,强化对欧“切割—冻结—分化”的政策公式,增强前沿对峙能力并构建环黑海“安全弧”,推动地缘对抗与共识构建的“议题脱钩”,从而塑造非敌非友的关系定位。俄政策调整旨在缓解“后苏联空间”的政治焦虑和安全恐慌,延续“能源杠杆”的权力效能窗口并修正“浪漫主义”倾向,但其调整态势不仅取决于定位、目标和路径选择,还受到欧美战略排序差异导致的内部波动、俄美关系塑造下的俄欧美三方博弈框架、“红线意识”的可持续性等外部因素影响,以及内部政治进程和利益观博弈的牵制,俄欧间的差速互动模式和多维博弈形态仍将延续,强对峙下的间歇性联动可能成为俄欧关系发展的重要特征。

The reshaping of transatlantic relations constitutes a major variable in Russia’s relations with Europe.Under the new situation,Russia positions itself as neither enemy nor friend to adapt to the dual dimension of Europe’s strategic autonomy.It conducts a“suspend-constraint-divide”policy toward Europe,builds a security arc around the Black Sea to improve its frontier confrontation capabilities,and promotes the decoupling of geopolitical confrontation from consensus-building issues.These policy adjustments aim to alleviate political anxiety and security concerns in the post-Soviet space,extend the effect of Russia’s energy leverage over Europe,and correct the romanticist policy orientation.However,the trajectory of these adjustments depend not only on Russia’s own positioning,objectives and choice of paths,but also on the internal fluctuations caused by the different strategic priorities of Europe and the United States,the tripartite game between Russia,Europe and the US,the sustainability of red line awareness of all parties,and domestic politics entwined with conflicting interests.Russia and Europe are expected to continue their differential interaction and multi-dimensional game,and intermittent linkage under high confrontation will be a prominent feature of Russia-Europe relations.