现代产业体系与经济可持续发展--基于经济政策不确定性与政府人才数量的调节作用

Modern Industrial System and Sustainable Economic Development--Based on the Moderating Role of Policy Uncertainty and Government Talent Number

发展现代产业体系有助于推动我国产业升级改造,也是推动我国经济可持续发展的关键所在。为探究现代产业体系对经济可持续发展的作用机理,利用数据包络—曼奎斯特指数分析法(DEA-Malmquist)测算各省区市绿色全要素生产率(反映经济可持续发展水平),构建现代产业体系评价指标测度现代产业体系发展水平,实证检验现代产业体系对经济可持续发展的影响。研究表明,发展现代产业体系有助于提升经济可持续发展水平,且该结论在经过更换被解释变量测度指标、改变回归模型、对被解释变量进行滞后处理等一系列稳健性检验,引入工具变量进行内生性处理后依然成立;经济政策不确定性和政府人才数量在现代产业体系与经济可持续发展间起调节作用,即经济政策不确定性越小,政府人才数量越多,现代产业体系对经济可持续发展的促进作用越明显。因此,为更好地推动我国经济向高质量发展转型,实现可持续发展,各地应持续构建高质量现代产业体系,打造现代产业体系与经济可持续发展协同机制;应建立同级政府部门间的政策制定协调机制,确保各部门出台的现代产业体系政策同向同频协同,减少各部门政策之间的冲突和矛盾;应重视政府专业人力资本,加强对政府相关人员的现代产业体系知识培训。

The development of modern industrial system is conducive to the upgrading and transformation of China's industry.The construction of modern industrial system is not only an important strategic plan for building a modern economic system,but also the key to promoting the sustainable development of China's economy.In order to explore the action mechanism of modern industrial system on realizing sustainable economic development,the authors use DEA-Malmquist to measure the green total factor productivity of different provincial regions,establish the evaluation index system to measure the development level of the modern industrial system,and empirically test the influence of modern industrial system on the sustainable economic development.It is found that,first,the development of modern industrial system can improve the level of sustainable economic development;and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests such as variable substitution,regression model change,variable lagged processing,and instrumental variable method.Second,the number of regional government talents and the uncertainty of economic policies play the moderating role between modern industrial system and the sustainable economic development,namely,lower uncertainty of economic policy and larger number of government talents will lead to the more obvious role of modern industrial systems in promoting the sustainable economic development.In order to better promote China’s economic development transformation to a high-quality one and achieve the sustainable economic development,local governments should,first,establish the high-quality modern industrial system,and strive to create a synergy mechanism between the modern industrial system and sustainable economic development;second,the local governments should establish a policy formulation and coordination mechanism among different government departments at the same level to guarantee the coordination of related policies and weaken the conflicts and contradictions of related policies;and third,local governments should pay more attention to government talents and strengthen the training of modern industrial system knowledge for relevant government talents.