收入流动与扩大中等收入群体的路径:基于CFPS数据的分析

The Path of Income Flow and Expanding Middle-Income Groups:An Analysis Based on CFPS Data

扩大中等收入群体是实现共同富裕的必然要求。近年来,随着经济增长,我国中等收入群体规模不断扩大。根据中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),依照Milanovic和Yitzhaki提出的中等收入标准(人均每天收入12-50美元),2012年我国中等收入群体只占8.4%,到2018年已经达到28.9%。从收入流动的视角看,中等收入群体的扩大主要来自于低收入阶层的向上流动。在经济增长的背景下,低收入家庭能否向上流动进入中等收入阶层受到个体家庭微观特征的影响。文章运用有序logit模型进行实证分析,结果表明,教育水平、家庭中就业人口的比例、体制内就业及城镇户籍等因素都对低收入家庭向上流动起到积极的促进作用。因此,扩大中等收入群体的路径主要包括促进低收入群体人力资本积累、提高低收入群体就业质量、以人为本推进城镇化、完善社会保障制度等。

Expanding middle-income groups is an inevitable requirement for achieving common prosperity.The scale of middle-income groups in China has been expanding with the economic growth in recent years.By the middle-income standard proposed by Milanovic and Yitzhaki(per capita daily income of $12~50),middle-income groups accounted for only 8.4% of the survey in 2012 and reached 28.9% by 2018 based on the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS).From the perspective of income mobility,the expansion of middle-income groups mainly comes from the upward mobility of low-income groups.In the context of economic growth,whether low-income families can move up into the middle-income class is affected by the micro-features of individual families.The article uses an ordered logit model to conduct empirical analysis,and the results show that factors such as education level,the proportion of employed population in the family,employment within the system,and urban household registration all play a positive role in promoting the upward mobility of low-income families.Therefore,the path to expand middle-income groups mainly includes promoting the accumulation of human capital of low-income groups,improving the quality of employment of low-income groups,promoting urbanization with people-oriented,and improving the social security system.