农业补贴改革对粮食适度规模经营的影响

The Effect of Agricultural Subsidies Reform on the Optimum-scale Management of Grain

为促进粮食生产提质增效和顺应WTO规则,2014—2017年间中国实施了农业"三项补贴"改革和玉米、大豆临时收储政策改革,并将补贴重点向生产者尤其是规模经营农户倾斜。本文利用全国农村固定观察点2014年与2017年两期农户面板数据考察了农业补贴改革对粮食适度规模经营的影响。结果发现:农业"三项补贴"改革整体上提高了规模农户的补贴获得,促进了粮食适度规模经营,但这一效果更多体现于粮食主产的东北和内蒙地区;玉米临时收储政策改革不仅明显增加了农户进行玉米适度规模经营的概率,还显著促进了规模农户进一步扩大玉米的经营规模;大豆临时收储政策改革的明显效果主要来自大豆主产的黑龙江。本研究的结论为今后在WTO框架下进行水稻、小麦最低收购价政策改革,促进农户扩大并持续进行粮食适度规模经营提供了政策启示,即向生产者补贴转变的同时向粮食主产区倾斜。

In order to improve the quality and efficiency of grain production and comply with the WTO rules,China implemented the reform of three agricultural subsidies and the reform of temporary reserve for corn and soybean between 2014 and 2017.The reform of three agricultural subsidies combines the subsidy for improved crop strains and seeds,the direct subsidy for grain growers and the comprehensive subsidy for agricultural materials into the subsidy for agricultural support and protection,and takes the promotion of the optimum-scale management of grain as one of the policy objectives.The reform of temporary reserve for corn and soybean has canceled the temporary reserve in Northeast China(Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang)and Inner Mongolia,and established the subsidies for corn and soybean growers,in order to ensure the basic income of farmers growing grain and stabilize their enthusiasm of planting grain while maintaining WTO compliance.From the content of the reform,both reforms have begun to shift the focus to the producer subsidies.So,in the context of the policy that optimum-scale management of grain is considered as the necessary way to develop modern agriculture,optimize the allocation of agricultural resources,improve agricultural productivity and ensure food security,does this change have an impact on optimum-scale management of grain?Due to the lack of data,few studies can be found on the evaluation of the performance of the above agricultural subsidy reform currently.Therefore,based on the latest national rural fixed observation sites in 2014 and 2017,this paper adopts the two-part model,two-way fixed-effect model and the instrumental variable method to empirically analyze the influence of the reform,in order to provide corresponding theoretical and practical support for how to carry out the grain subsidy reform under WTO rules to promote grain production,especially optimum-scale management of grain.The results show that first,the reform of three agricultural subsidies improves the subsidy of large-scale farmers and promotes the optimum-scale management of grain,but this effect is mainly reflected in the main grain-producing area of northeast and Inner Mongolia.Second,the reform of temporary reserve for corn significantly increases not only the probability of optimum-scale management of corn,but also the probability of scale farmers further expanding the scale of corn production.Third,the temporary effect of the reform of temporary reserve for soybean is mainly generated by the main soybean-producing area of Heilongjiang.The above research conclusions have important policy implications.First,in terms of subsidy mode,the reform of agricultural subsidies,especially the three agricultural subsidies,has realized the transformation to the key support of producers,especially large-scale farmers,and then promoted the optimum-scale management of grain,which is worthy of recognition.Second,the performance of the reform of temporary reserve for corn and soybean provides orientations for how to carry out the reform of minimum purchase of rice and wheat under the WTO framework in the future,that is,while adhering to the principle that price should be set by the market and separated from subsidies,subsidies are provided to producer and the main grain-producing areas.The marginal contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects.First,in the research content,this paper for the first time comprehensively analyzes the impact of the reform of three agricultural subsidies and the reform of temporary reserve for corn on the optimum-scale management of grain.Second,in terms of research data,this paper uses the national micro survey data of rural fixed observation sites to evaluate the policy effect from the micro level of farmers.Third,the research conclusions of this paper can provide guidance for the formulation of relevant policies,especially the political references for how to adjust and reform the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat under the WTO framework and promote the optimum-scale management of grain.