环神农架烟区烟草赤星病流行动态研究

Study on the Epidemic Dynamics of Tobacco Brown Spot in Tobacco-Growing Areas around Shennongjia

通过定点系统调查和统计分析,确定了环神农架烟区烟草赤星病发生与流行动态规律。结果表明,一元三次模型能较好地描述烟草赤星病的流行动态规律,可根据该模型进行病害的预测。该区域烟草赤星病整体呈流行迅速、后期平稳的特点,病程阶段可划分为病害蔓延期(移栽后65~80 d)、病害高峰期(移栽后80~99 d)和病害消减期(移栽后99~112 d)。应在赤星病蔓延期及之前(即移栽后65 d左右)进行病害积极预防。

By using system investigation and statistical analysis,the occurrence and epidemic dynamics of tobacco brown spot in tobacco-growing areas around Shennongjia were studied.The results indicated that the cubic equation model could well reflect the epidemic dynamics of tobacco brown spot.Therefore,the occurrence of this disease could be predicted using this model.Tobacco brown spot in the area showed the characteristic of spread rapidly and stable in the late.The occurrence stage of the disease could be classified into three periods:quickly spread of disease(65-80 d after transplanting),peak of disease(80-99 d after transplanting)and reduction of disease(99-112 d).The disease prevention and control should be carried out actively before the period of quickly spread(about 65 days after transplantation).