四川盆区油菜花期连阴雨灾害指标及风险分析

Disaster Index and Risk Analysis of Continuous Rain for Rape During Anthesis in Sichuan Basin, China

【目的】针对四川盆区春季连阴雨灾害发生情况,对油菜花期连阴雨灾害综合风险分析和评估,为防灾减灾和灾害保险研究提供科学基础。【方法】利用四川盆区1981—2020年105个气象观测站的气象资料,结合油菜生产观测资料、农业统计资料及基础地理信息,对危险性、暴露性、易损性和防灾减灾能力4要素指标进行定量评价,并分别建立评价模型。依据自然灾害风险形成机制,构建综合风险评价模型并进行风险区划。【结果】盆东平行岭谷区、盆南丘陵区和盆周边缘山地西南部是油菜花期连阴雨灾害的高危险性区;盆中浅丘区暴露性最高;高脆弱性区域较分散,在盆南丘陵区和盆西平原区分布相对较多;盆西平原、盆南丘陵区防灾减灾能力较强;油菜花期连阴雨灾害综合风险高风险区多集中在盆东平行岭谷区、盆南丘陵区和盆中浅丘区中部,低风险区主要分布在盆西平原区中部及盆周边缘山地区;中风险区分布最广,占四川盆区耕地面积的45%以上。【结论】研究结果与四川盆区气候背景、农业气象灾害时空分布特点一致,能呈现和解释四川盆区油菜花期连阴雨灾害风险。

【Objective】Aiming at the occurrence of continuous rain disasters during spring in the of Sichuan Basin,a comprehensive-risk analysis and evaluation of continuous rain for rape during anthesis was carried out so that it can provide a scientific basis for the research of regional disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster insurance.【Method】Based on the meteorological data of 105 meteorological observation stations in the Sichuan Basin between 1981 and 2020,combining with the observation data of rape production,agricultural statistics and basic geographic information,four assessment indexes(hazard,exposure,vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity)were quantitatively evaluated,and the evaluation models were established.Base on the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk,a comprehensive risk assessment model was established and used for risk division.【Result】The higher-hazard areas concentrated in the paralleled ridge-valley region of eastern basin,the rolling terrain of southern basin and the southwest of basin edge;the exposure index of shallow hilly region of central basin was the highest;the distribution of higher-vulnerability areas was dispersed and relatively concentrated in the rolling terrain of southern basin and the plain terrain of western basin;the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of western basin and southern basin were stronger;the comprehensive higherrisk areas of continuous rain disaster during anthesis of rape concentrated in the eastern basin,southern basin and central basin,and lower-risk areas concentrated in the middle plain terrain of western basin and basin edge;moderate-risk areas were the most widely distributed,the total area of which was over 45 percent of cultivated land area in the Sichuan Basin.【Conclusion】The results were consistent with the climatic background of Sichuan Basin and temporal-spatial distribution of agrometeorological disasters,which could present and explain the risks of continuous-rain for rape during anthesis in Sichuan Basin.