山东省耕地利用效率时空差异及其影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Use Efficiency in Shandong Province

为了研究山东省耕地利用效率情况及其影响因素,探究耕地资源开发利用方向。本文以山东省为研究对象,从省域和市域尺度通过数据包络分析法(DEA)对山东省耕地利用效率进行时空分析,通过多元线性回归模型进行山东省耕地利用综合效率时间差异影响因素分析,采用地理探测器进行耕地利用综合效率空间差异影响因素分析。结果表明2019年山东省耕地利用效率为弱DEA有效仅在技术上达到最优,农药和化肥施用量的投入存在冗余现象,近十年间山东省耕地利用综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率均呈现逐步上升趋势;在省域尺度上有效灌溉面积对耕地利用综合效率的相关性最大,人均GDP的显著性最强,单位耕地面积农业机械动力呈显著负相关。在市域尺度上有效灌溉面积比例对耕地利用综合效率空间差异性影响最大;空间格局上鲁东地区综合效率低于鲁西地区。针对存在的问题,提出了改进农业施肥技术,降低化肥使用量;加强农田水利及其配套设施建设力度;不断完善耕地细碎化向规模化的经营模式等建议。

In order to study the utilization efficiency of cultivated land and its influencing factors in Shandong province, and explore the development and utilization direction of cultivated land resources. Taking Shandong province as the research object, this paper analyzes the current situation of the utilization efficiency of cultivated land in Shandong province from the provincial and city scale through the Data envelopment analysis method(DEA), the time difference of comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land use in Shandong province was analyzed by multiple linear regression model, and the spatial difference of comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land use was analyzed by geographic detector. The results showed that the cultivated land use efficiency of Shandong province in 2019 was weak DEA efficiency only reached the best technically,and the input of pesticide and fertilizer application amount was redundant, the comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of cultivated land use in Shandong province have gradually increased in the past ten years, and the correlation between the effective irrigated area and the comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land use is the largest at the provincial scale, the GDP per capita was the most significant, and the agricultural machinery per unit cultivated area was negatively correlated. In the city scale, the proportion of the effective irrigated area has the greatest influence on the spatial difference of the comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land use, and in the spatial pattern, the comprehensive efficiency of Lutong is lower than that of Roucy. In view of the existing problems, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as improving agricultural fertilization technology, reducing the use of chemical fertilizer, strengthening the construction of Farmland Water Conservancy and its supporting facilities, and improving the management mode of farmland fragmentation to scale.