中国普惠金融发展水平时空演变特征及影响因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influence Factors of Inclusive Financial Development Level in China

以全国30个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,综合运用标准差椭圆、空间自相关和空间回归模型来探讨2006—2018年中国普惠金融发展水平的时空演变及其影响因素,得到以下主要结论:(1)时序上:全国、四大区域及各省普惠金融发展水平呈现波动上升的趋势,但整体发展水平低下,2018年全国平均水平仍处于中等偏下类型。(2)空间上:中国普惠金融水平以上海和北京为相对高水平起点,主要向东部沿海地区和西部地区扩散,最终形成东西部地区高、中部地区低的"中部塌陷"的空间分布格局。普惠金融发展水平呈现出显著的空间聚集状态,高—高聚集区多位于中国东部沿海地区,低—低聚集区主要集中在中西部地区。(3)产业结构优化水平、交通基础设施、政府扶持力度、经济发展水平和城乡收入差距均对本地的普惠金融发展水平产生了显著的正向促进作用,其影响程度依次降低;经济发展水平、产业结构优化水平、金融发展效率和教育与科技所占比重产生了显著的空间溢出效应。

Taking 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions) in China as the research object, this paper comprehensively uses the methods of standard deviation ellipse, spatial auto-correlation, and spatial regression model to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of the development level of inclusive finance in China from 2006 to 2018 and its influencing factors. The following main conclusions are drawn: 1) From the perspective of time sequence, the development level of inclusive finance shows a fluctuating trend at the national, regional and provincial level, but the overall development level is low. In 2018,the national average level was still at the lower level of the medium level. 2)From the spatial perspective,it takes Shanghai and Beijing as the centers of high-value areas,and finally forms a spatial distribution pattern of "central collapse" with high levels in the eastern and western China and low levels in the central region. The development level of inclusive finance shows a significant spatial aggregation state. High-high agglomeration areas mostly locate in the east of China,while low-low agglomeration areas mainly concentrate in the central and western regions. 3) The optimization level of industrial structure, transportation infrastructure, government support, economic development level and urban-rural income gap all have a significant positive promoting effect on the development level of local inclusive finance,and the influence degree decreases successively. The level of economic development,the level of industrial structure optimization, the efficiency of financial development and the proportion of education and science and technology have a significant spatial spillover effect.