长三角城市群城镇用地扩展时空格局及驱动力解析

Patterns of Urban Land Expansion and Its Driving Forces in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

以长三角城市群为例,运用城镇用地扩展强度及扩展强度差异指数、景观扩展指数、人口—土地协同度、经济—土地协同度等方法,分析了1980—2018年长三角城市群城镇用地扩展格局的特征和扩展质量,同时运用重心—GTWR模型剖析各个时期不同发育等级城市的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1980—2018年,长三角城市群城镇用地扩展强度整体上呈现出下降—上升—下降的趋势,并在2005—2010年出现高峰,2005年之前高速发展城市主要集中在上海、江苏、浙江等省市,2010年后安徽省各地市的城镇扩展强度开始上升,经济增长是城镇用地扩展强度变化的核心驱动因子。(2)长三角城市群城市扩展速度南部高于北部,并有向北部转移趋势,经济增长、教育水平和交通区位的驱动影响较大,城镇用地创造的经济效率显著。(3)长三角城市群城镇用地扩展以飞地式和边缘式模式并存为主,空间发展模式逐渐向多核发展模式转变,出现西部资源承接中心、中部教育中心、南部科技研发中心和东部资源配置中心四大功能核心组团。

The direct spatial manifestation of urbanization and land use change is the expansion of urban land use.Based on the methods of the expansion intensity index and expansion difference index of urban land,landscape expansion index,population-land coordination degree,and economy-land coordination degree,this paper analyzes the characteristics and expansion quality of urban land in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration from 1980 to 2018.And then using the gravity-GTWR model,it analyzes the driving factors of urban land expansion with different levels of development in different periods.The results show that:1)From 1980 to 2018,the intensity of urban land expansion,on the whole,showed fluctuating change in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,which is decline,rise and decline in sequence.Higher value of expansion intensity appeared in the period of 2005-2010.Before 2005,urban land expansion with rapid development mainly concentrated in Shanghai and cities of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and so on.After 2010,the urban expansion intensity of cities in Anhui Province began to increase.2)The speed of urban land expansion was higher in the south of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration than in the north,and showed a tendency of northward shift.The more important driving factors were economic growth,education level and transportation location.3)The patterns of urban land expansion in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration were dominated by outlying expansion and edge expansion,and the spatial development mode gradually changed to the multi-core development mode,which was made up of four function cores:the center for undertaking resource in the west of urban agglomeration,the education center in the central,the science and technology research center in the south,the resource allocation center in the east.