技术创新、产业升级与国际数字贸易发展——基于面板VAR模型的分析

Technological Innovation,Industrial Upgrading and International Digital Trade--Based on Dynamic Panel VAR Model

随着数字贸易的迅猛发展,国际贸易发展逐步进入数字时代.本文理论探讨了技术创新、产业升级和数字贸易关系的内在影响机制,采用2000-2018年G20成员国家数据,构建面板VAR模型验证了技术创新和高新技术产业对数字贸易发展的促进作用.结果发现,技术创新对国际数字服务贸易的影响更为显著,而产业升级对国际数字产品贸易的影响更为显著.为了更好地促进我国技术创新、产业升级和数字贸易的协同发展,还需要不断完善数字贸易体系和治理机制,夯实数字产业基础,提升数字贸易竞争力.

With the rapid development of digital trade,the international trade has gradually entered into a digital era.This paper theoretically discussed the internal influence mechanism of technological innovation,industrial upgrading and digital trade.Using the data of G20 from 2000 to 2018,the paper constructed a panel VAR model to verify the promotion effect of technological innovation and high-tech industry on digital trade.The results showed that the impact of technological innovation on international trade in digital services was more significant,while the impact of industrial upgrading on international trade in digital products was more prominent.In order to better promote the coordinated development of technological innovation,industrial upgrading and digital trade in China,we need to constantly improve the digital trade system and governance mechanism,consolidate the foundation of digital industry and enhance the digital trade competitiveness.