露天矿运输系统三维风险评价模型及其量化研究

Research on 3D risk assessment model and quantification of open-pit mine transportation system

为了保证露天矿在运输过程中的安全,提出了包含风险发生的可能性(L)、风险后果的严重性(C)和风险时间价值(E)的露天矿运输系统三维风险模型。针对三维风险模型难以量化的问题,结合风险因素各等级的量化值提出改进的雷达图法,实现自适应划分三维风险评价结果等级区间;结合露天矿运输系统相互作用、相互联系的特点,在结构熵权法的基础上融入指标的相关量,提出改进后的结构熵权法使其全面客观计算指标权重;考虑专家评价数据中包含大量不确定的信息且难以全面客观对其分析,基于模糊集改进模糊物元,使其支持从支持、反对和中立信息三方面量化专家评价数据,基于未确知有理数客观准确地提取支持、反对和中立信息。通过实例说明三维风险评价模型及其量化方法能有效地反映露天矿运输中的安全风险等级。该方法为露天矿运输系统的风险评价提供一种新的思路和方法。

In order to ensure the safety of open-pit mine in the process of transportation,this paper attempts to come up with a three-dimensional risk model of open-pit mine transportation system including the possibility of risk occurrence(L),the severity of risk consequences(C)and the time value of risk(E).Aiming at problems that are difficult to quantify in 3 D risk models,combining the quantitative values of each level of risk factors,an improved radar chart method is proposed to realize adaptive division of 3 D risk evaluation result level intervals;combining the characteristics of the interaction and interconnection of the open-pit transportation system,integrating the relevant quantities of the indicators on the basis of the structural entropy weight method,proposes an improved structural entropy weight method to fully and objectively calculate the indicator weight;considering that the expert evaluation data contains a large amount of uncertain information and it is difficult to analyze it objectively and comprehensively,the fuzzy matter element is improved based on the fuzzy set to support the quantitative expert evaluation data from three aspects of support,opposition and neutral information,and is based on unascertained rational numbers extract support,opposition and neutral information objectively and accurately.An example is given to illustrate that the 3 D risk assessment model and its quantification method can effectively reflect the safety risk level in open-pit transportation.This method provides a new idea and method for the risk assessment of the open-pit mine transportation system.