四川入境旅游经济差异时空演化研究

Space-time analysis of international tourism revenues in Sichuan

选取2011—2017年四川省21个市州旅游外汇收入作为测度指标,采用ArcGIS10.2和GeoDa处理数据,测算Global Moran’s I与Local Moran’s I,揭示四川入境旅游经济差异时空格局及其演化特征。结果表明:四川入境旅游经济呈极弱负相关,空间离散分布趋势增强,空间差异逐渐变大;雅安、成都、德阳、乐山等7市州有显著空间聚集特征;入境旅游经济标准差椭圆大小变化幅度较大,覆盖范围逐年缩小,出现极化现象;入境旅游经济水平差异大致以成都为中心呈西北-东南向展布,并有向南北方向转角的趋势。研究结论有望为加快构建“一干多支、五区协同”的国际旅游目的地体系,特别是实施区域协调发展战略等重点工作提供科学依据。

This study investigates the spatial-temporal evolution of International Tourism Revenues(ITR)in Sichuan Province,Southwest China.In recent years the economic development varies greatly among the cities and counties in Sichuan,resulting unbalanced development.To address these issues,this study employs ArcGIS10.2 and GeoDa to analyze the ITR of 21 cities or prefectures in Sichuan from 2011 to 2017.The Global Moran’s I indicates that the ITR is weakly correlated since the spatial discrete distribution trend is strengthened while the spatial-temporal differences is expanding.The Local Moran’s further reveals that significant spatial agglomeration is within 7 cities or prefectures such as Ya’an,Chengdu,Deyang and Leshan.At the same time,the standard deviational ellipses see a growing trend while its scale is narrowing,indicating the phenomenon of polarization.In particular,Chengdu,the capital of Sichuan is definitely the most important generator of ITR of the province.Taken this into account,the spatial-temporal differences among cities or prefectures extends from northwest to southeast,but gradually turns to the north-south direction.The findings support the decision to build Sichuan a world-class international tourist destination that fits into the strategy of“One Main Area and Multiple Auxiliaries”as well as the“Coordinate Regional Development Plan”.