贸易政策不确定性的生产率效应——基于GVC嵌入度渠道的经验研究

The Productivity Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty:An Empirical Perspective of GVC Embeddedness

在Handley理论模型的基础上,构建贸易政策不确定性的生产率效应模型,并基于中国加入WTO进行准自然实验。采用倍差法对匹配的2000年至2013年的关税数据、中国海关数据和中国工业企业数据进行实证检验,研究了降低贸易政策不确定性影响出口企业生产率的效应和渠道。研究结果证实降低贸易政策不确定性确实会促进出口企业生产率的提升。异质性检验结果表明:降低贸易政策不确定性对国有出口企业、出口依赖型企业和多产品出口企业生产率提升的贡献更大。进一步研究证实降低贸易政策不确定性能通过增强GVC嵌入度和降低企业面临融资约束程度的途径来提高企业生产率。

According to Handley’s theoretical model,this paper constructs a productivity effect model of trade policy uncertainty,and conducts a quasi-natural experiment of China’s entry into the WTO.Adopting the multiplydifference method,it empirically tests the matched data of tariffs,China Customs and China industrial enterprises from 2000 to 2013,and studies the effects and channels that affect the productivity of export enterprises when the trade policy uncertainty is decreased.The results validate that an increase in trade policy uncertainty does contribute to the productivity improvement of the export enterprises.A heterogeneity test also shows that more contributions can be made to the productivity improvement of state-owned export enterprises,as well as the export-dependent and multi-product ones when the trade policy uncertainty is decreased.Further studies confirm that enhancing GVC embeddedness and reducing the degree of financing constraints for the firms can be the means to decrease the trade policy uncertainty for the improvement of their productivity.