M_(2)/GDP 长期上升的理论分析与实证检验

A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test on the Long-Term Rise of M_(2)/GDP

在我国经济开启高质量发展的背景下,监管层提出货币政策的中介目标(M_(2))应与名义GDP增速基本匹配。这意味着,M_(2)/GDP需要逐步稳定;然而M_(2)/GDP上升却是许多国家长期存在的一个现象,本文通过构建带有货币发行机制的新古典增长模型,从资本积累引发资本产出比上升,同时资本作为抵押物不断创造信用货币的角度,解释了经济体伴随资本积累引起的长期M_(2)/GDP上升的问题。结果显示,即使金融杠杆不变,资本产出比的上升也会推高M_(2)/GDP,但会逐步趋向于均衡。本文通过比较静态分析发现,技术进步率、资本产出弹性、主观贴现率、跨期替代弹性与折旧率,均会影响M_(2)/GDP,并用15国35年的面板数据验证了这些参数的影响。本文最后提出建议:通过提升技术进步率、劳动力增速和消费率来控制M_(2)/GDP的上升,同时要避免M_(2)/GDP的大幅下滑。

Under the background of high-quality development of China's economy,the regulators put forward that the intermediary target of monetary policy(M_(2))basically matches the growth rate of nominal GDP,which means that M_(2)/GDP needs to be gradually stabilized.However,the rise of M_(2)/GDP is a long-standing phenomenon in many countries around the world.This paper constructs a neoclassical growth model with currency issuance mechanism.In this model,capital accumulation leads to an increase in the capital output ratio,while credit money is also created with the increasing capital as collateral.Then the long-term rise in the ratio of money to output can be explained by capital accumulation.The results show that even if the financial leverage remains unchanged,the increase of capital output ratio will still increase M_(2)/GDP,but will gradually approach equilibrium path.After comparative static analysis,it is found that technological progress rate,capital output elasticity,subjective discount rate,intertemporal substitution elasticity and depreciation rate can all affect M_(2)/GDP.A 35-year panel data model of 15 countries is used to verify the effects of these parameters.Finally,we suggest that the increase of M_(2)/GDP should be controlled by increasing the rate of technological progress,the growth of labor supply and consumption.The sharp decline of M_(2)/GDP should also be avoided.