基于马尔科夫模型的太原市空气质量等级预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Air Quality Level in Taiyuan Based on Markov Model

为预测太原市未来的空气质量等级情况,建立了相应的马尔科夫预测模型。用太原市2020年的空气质量等级数据进行模型检验,其相对误差为4.38%.用该模型预测太原市2021年4月15日后5 d的空气质量等级,预测准确率为80%,从而得出此马尔科夫预测模型对空气等级的预测效果较好的结论。

In order to predict the air quality level of Taiyuan,a corresponding Markov prediction model is established.With the air quality level data of Taiyuan in 2020 used the model test,the relative error is 4.38%.This model is used to predict the air quality level of Taiyuan in the five days after April 15,2021,and the prediction accuracy rate is 80%,so it is concluded that the Markov prediction model has a better predictive effect on the air level.