重大公共卫生事件中公众防控意识传播模型研究

Research on transmission model of consciousness of prevention and control among the public in major public health emergencies

新冠肺炎疫情是一场百年不遇的全球性重大公共卫生突发事件.经过艰苦抗击,我国目前已经进入疫情防控常态化阶段,疫情防控与经济复苏同步推进.在此疫情防控常态化阶段,如何通过多种沟通渠道来实现疫情防控意识在社会公众中的有效传播至关重要.为此,构建多种渠道构成的多重社会网络中的防控意识传播模型,通过模型分析和仿真实验得出:1)只要依据区分防控意识传播与否的阈值条件确保防控意识拥有者比例在某一临界值以上,可使防控意识在社会公众中持续传播;2)单一渠道传播难以使社会公众迅速提升防控意识,线上、线下多种信息渠道的均衡使用,才能实现防控意识传播效率的最大化;3)科学适度地增大公众个体每天交流疫情防控的次数才能最大限度地促进防控意识传播,一旦公众个体每天通过多渠道沟通的次数超过某一界限,反而降低防控意识的传播效率.

COVID-19 epidemic is a major global public health emergency that rarely happened in a century.China has entered the normal stage of epidemic prevention and control after strenuous struggle.Epidemic prevention and control have been promoted synchronously with economic recovery.It is very important that how to realize the effective transmission for epidemic consciousness of prevention and control in the public at this stage of normalization of the epidemic.For this reason,a transmission dynamic model of consciousness of prevention and control in multiplex social networks formed by multiple channels is firstly established.Model analysis and simulation experiments are carried out to draw that it can make the consciousness of prevention and control transmit among public all the time as long as the proportion of owners with consciousness is above a critical value according to the threshold conditions for distinguishing whether the consciousness propagates.It is difficult to quickly raise consciousness of prevention and control for the public that communicating through a single channel.Online and offline multiple information channels are used in a balanced manner in order to maximize the efficiency of transmission.It can promote the transmission of consciousness of prevention and control as much as possible that scientifically and moderately increasing the number of daily communication.Once the number of public communication through multiple channels exceeds a certain limit,it will reduce the efficiency of transmission for consciousness of prevention and control.