基于白名单的地铁涉恐防爆安检序贯博弈模型

Sequential game model of subway security inspection in terrorism related explosion protection based on white list

地铁安检引入白名单制度是提高地铁安检通行速度的可行方法,但其较低的抽检率设计也引发了业界对白名单通道涉恐防爆安检能力不足的担忧,需要进一步优化地铁安检白名单制度的涉恐防爆安检流程.结合当前"一刀切式"白名单制度下地铁安检流程存在的问题,本文首先分析了安检厅和候车厅的爆炸伤亡损失预测模型,在此基础上构建了地铁安检部门和暴恐分子之间基于白名单制度的地铁涉恐防爆安检序贯博弈模型,并得出了子博弈完美纳什均衡.研究发现,白名单通道的抽检率与其安检安全性、安检成本正相关,与其安检通行速度负相关;白名单乘客占比越大,地铁安检整体客流的自发可调节性越差;白名单通道的安检通行速度和安检安全性与暴恐分子决策显著相关.为了提升白名单通道的涉恐防爆安检能力,安检部门可从白名单制度基本参数设计、新技术推广和多部门协调等角度进行优化.为进一步控制暴恐袭击损失,地铁部门需要提高联防联控投入水平、增强群防群控意识、加强违禁品管控宣传、强化乘客候检和候车的列队水平、增设巡检环节等.

The introduction of white list system in subway security inspection is a feasible method to improve the speed of subway security inspection.However,its low sampling rate design raises concerns about the lack of the capacity of terrorism related explosion protection of the white list channel.It is necessary to further optimize the security inspection process of the white list system.Combined with the current subway security problems existing under the process of "one-size-fits-all" white list system,this paper first analyzes the explosion casualty loss prediction model of the security hall and waiting hall,on this basis,this paper constructs a sequential game model based on the white list system between the subway security department and the terrorists,and obtains the perfect Nash equilibrium of the sub-game.The results show that the sampling rate of the white list channel is positively correlated with the security and the cost of subway security inspection,and negatively correlated with the speed of subway security inspection;The larger the proportion of white list passengers,the worse the overall passenger flow suitability of subway security inspection;The speed and security of the white list channel are significantly related to the decision of terrorists.In order to improve the security capability of the white list channel,the security department can optimize the basic parameters design of the white list system,promote new technology,coordinate multi-departments,and so on.In order to further control the losses caused by terrorist attacks,the subway department needs to improve the investment level of joint prevention and control,enhance the awareness of mass prevention and control,strengthen the publicity of the control of contraband,strengthen the level of passenger waiting for inspection and waiting for the train,set up the inspection link,and so on.