基于齐当别理论的出行决策框架效应研究

Framing Effect of Travel Decision Based on Equate-to-differentiate Theory

在对成都市某大学新老校区交通方式选择的风险框架实验中发现,被试并未表现出前景理论预测的损失领域的风险寻求。本研究基于齐当别理论,在初次风险框架实验基础上增设匹配任务实验,将选择119路公交及校园交通车两种交通方式的最好可能结果及最坏可能结果分别配对。第一次实验通过扩大调查样本,增加对出行场景的描述,发现选择119路公交的出行者是在最好可能结果维度上进行决策。在此基础上,第二次实验对场景描述及参数进行修改,发现参数差异的变化会影响风险决策中框架效应作用的强弱,这与齐当别理论的预测相一致。总体上,基于齐当别理论的匹配任务实验可以显著解释出行者的交通方式选择行为,出行者在维度差异上的不同判断结果导致交通选择行为存在差异,而负面框架并不必然导致出行者倾向于风险寻求。

In the risk frame experiment of travel mode choice in the old and new campus of a university in Chengdu,it was found that the subjects did not show the risk seeking in the loss area predicted by the prospect theory.In this research,a matching experiment was added on the basis of the initial risk frame experiment,the best possible outcome and the worst possible outcome of No.119 bus and campus bus were matched respectively based on equate-to-differentiate theory.In the first experiment,by enlarging the survey sample and increasing the description of travel scene,it was found that travelers who chose No.119 bus made decisions in the dimension of best possible outcome.On this basis,scene description and parameters were modified in the second experiment,and it was found that the variation of parameter difference would affect the strength of framing effect in risk decision making,which was consistent with the prediction of equate-to-differentiate theory.In general,the matching experiments based on the equate-to-differentiate theory can significantly explain the traveler's travel mode choice,the different judgment results of travelers on the dimension difference lead to the difference of traffic choice behavior,and negative framework does not necessarily lead to travelers'tendency to risk seeking.