新发展格局下的国内大循环与国际循环——基于网络关联视角的一个实证研究

How to Balance the Domestic Circulation Against the International Circulations in the New Development Paradigm——An Empirical Evidence from the Perspective of Network Connectedness

全球化浪潮使各国经济形成了"你中有我、我中有你"的网络关联状态,但全球化进程有时也会遭遇逆流,并非直线式向前发展。本文基于网络关联视角构建非线性模型,对"国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进"的新发展格局提供经验证据。本文研究表明:中国是世界经济的"净输出者",已成为拉动世界经济的"火车头",对绝大多数经济体而言均是"净贡献者",并且对美国经济的依赖程度小于美国经济对中国的依赖程度。我国出口、投资与经济增长的关联性最高,其次是进口,消费的关联性最低;出口和进口对我国经济增长长期发挥支配作用,投资亦曾一度阶段性地处于支配地位,但消费对经济增长的主导作用尚未充分显现。国际循环对我国经济的溢入性较为显著,远大于我国国内经济变量之间的关联程度;国内大循环的主体地位尚未建立,我国不宜脱离国际循环而"独善其身"。本文结论对于新发展格局下如何平衡国内大循环与国际循环具有启示意义。

Globalization has created an interconnected state of network among the economies across the world, but it does not move forward in a straight line when suffering reversals and abrupt changes. In the face of rising protectionism triggered by the United States and exceptional uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years, China needs to move faster to foster a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay, with domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.From the prospective of network connectedness, this paper, by constructing a non-linear model, provides empirical evidence for how to balance the domestic circulation against the international circulations. In order to realize this method for empirical research, this paper estimates a TVP-VAR model of quarterly macro-economic data for 35 economies across the world, then obtains variance decompositions and, hence, connectedness measures in the spirit of Antonakakis et al.(2020).Through static and dynamic analysis of these connectedness measures, this paper unfolds the structural changes and nonlinear characteristics in China’s domestic and international circulations.It is found that China has been working as a net exporter of economic growth to the world, driving the global economy as the"locomotive"and contributing to most economies. As to the connectedness with the economic growth, consumption comes last followed by import, with export and fixed capital investment topping the list. Similarly, export and import have been proven to dominate the GDP growth for long periods, fixed capital investment to dominate the GDP growth for some time especially in post-2009, while the dominant effect of consumption on economic growth is inconspicuous. Taken together, the spillover effects of international circulations on China’s economic performance are verified to outweigh that of domestic circulation, which means that China should not wall itself off the international circulations. These conclusions are of great significance to well balance the domestic circulation against the international circulations in the new development paradigm.