摘要
选择碳排放衡量环境质量,从排放总量、人均排放量和排放强度对碳排放情况进行了国际比较,并利用1996—2019年68个国家的面板数据对人均碳排放量与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:(1)主要发达国家已经实现碳排放总量达峰,主要发展中国家碳排放总量及人均排放量仍处于上升态势,但就人均碳排放量而言,前者明显高于后者;中国尽管碳排放总量世界第一,人均碳排放量却仍远低于美国,近年来碳排放总量及人均排放量的增速都明显放缓。(2)人均国民收入与人均CO2排放量呈“N”型关系,表明单靠收入增长并不能自然而然产生减排效应,即收入减排效应是不确定的。(3)对高收入国家而言,产业结构高级化的减排效应和市场开放的减排效应均比较明显;对于中等收入国家而言,因它们在产业的国际分工体系和国际贸易体系中处于中低端和相对被动地位,两种效应都尚未显现。
By choosing carbon emissions to measure environmental quality,this paper makes an international comparison of carbon emissions in terms of total emissions,per capita emissions and emission intensity,and then empirically studies the relationship between per capita carbon emissions and economic growth on the basis of 68 countries panel data from 1996 to 2019.The results show that:(1)The major developed countries have achieved the peak of total carbon emissions,and the total carbon emissions and per capita emissions of the major developing countries are still rising,but in terms of per capita carbon emissions,the former is significantly higher than the latter.Although China's total carbon emission ranks first in the world,its per capita carbon emission is still far lower than that of the United States,and the growth rates of China's total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions have slowed significantly in recent years.(2)The relationship between per capita national income and per capita CO2 emissions is N-type,which indicated that income growth alone can not produce emission reduction effect naturally,that is to say,the income emission reduction effect is uncertain.(3)For high-income countries,both industrial structure supererogation and market opening have a significant emission reduction effects.For middle-income countries,two kinds of reduction effects have not yet appeared because they are in the middle-low end of the international division of labor and in a relatively passive position of the international trade system.
出处
《现代管理科学》
北大核心
2021年第8期13-25,共13页
Modern Management Science
基金
天津社会科学院重点课题《京津冀绿色发展与生态环境协同治理研究》(项目编号:20YZD-09)。
