三层资产负债表框架下利率的传导和决定机制

Interest Rate Determination and Transmission under a Three-Tier Balance Sheet System

不同于一般均衡框架,本文提出在三层资产负债表框架下可以将经济体系转换为一系列具有不同风险特征、期限结构以及不同回报率的资产和负债体系。在该体系下,中央银行基于不同的政策目标进行宏观调控,而金融机构基于自身的资产负债管理,将负债端成本的变化传导至资产端收益率,使实体经济融资成本发生变化,进而改变企业融资意愿和投资行为,最终使经济向央行的政策目标回归。预期不稳定和外生冲击等因素导致这一过程不断循环反馈,使利率体系有弹性地波浪式运行,在利率的传导过程中形成了不同的动态运行轨迹。

This article proposes that the nation’s economy can be better served by the application of a series of asset and liability systems with different risk characteristics, term structures, and rates of return with a three-tier balance sheet. Under this system, the central bank would conduct macro-control based on different policy objectives. Financial institutions, based on their own asset-liability management, would transmit changes in costs on the liabilities side to the asset-side rate of return. This would change the financing costs of the real economy and alter enterprise financing willingness. Resulting changes in investment behavior would eventually steer the economy toward central bank policy goals. Factors such as expected instability and external shocks have led to continuous feedback loops in this process, making the interest rate system operate in a wave-like manner. This forms different dynamic trajectories during the transmission of interest rates.