儿童注意缺陷多动障碍发病风险预测模型的构建

Construction of a risk prediction model for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children

目的构建儿童注意缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)发病风险预测模型。方法选取2017年1月至2020年6月余姚市第三人民医院儿科门诊确诊的ADHD患儿1 000例(ADHD组)及健康体检的学龄儿童1 000例(对照组)为研究对象。对研究对象近亲属进行问卷调查,采用logistic回归分析构建ADHD发病预测模型。结果母亲性格急躁、妊娠期情绪异常、父亲ADHD症状史、母亲吸烟、教养方式、胎儿宫内窘迫为ADHD发病的独立危险因素,预测模型受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.929(0.894~0.964)。结论模型预测性能良好,ADHD发病高危的儿童应及早随访,加强父母健康宣教、教养方式干预,预防ADHD的发生。

Objective To construct a risk prediction model for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)in children.Methods A total of 1000 children patients diagnosed with ADHD who received treatment in the Department of Pediatrics,the Third People's Hospital of Yuyao,China between January 2017 and June 2020 were included in the ADHD group.Additional 1000 school-age children who concurrently received health examination were included in the control group.Questionnaire surveys were performed among the subjects'close relatives.The risk prediction models for ADHD were constructed.Results Mother's irritability,abnormal emotion during pregnancy,father's history of ADHD symptoms,mother's smoking,rearing style and fetal distress were independent risk factors for ADHD.The area under the ROC curve of prediction model application was 0.929(0.894-0.964).Conclusion The constructed risk prediction models for ADHD have good performance in the prediction of ADHD.Children at high risk of ADHD should be followed up as early as possible.Parents'health education and parenting intervention should be strengthened to prevent the occurrence of ADHD.