区域经济韧性视角下老工业基地经济转型过程——以辽宁省为例

Economic Transformation Process of Old Industrial Bases from the Perspective of Regional Economic Resilience: A Case Study of Liaoning Province

区域经济韧性为分析老工业基地经济转型过程和规律提供了新的研究视角和分析框架。论文构建区域经济韧性视角下经济转型分析框架,对2003—2018年辽宁老工业基地经济转型过程进行实证分析,探讨辽宁经济转型演变过程与阶段特征。结果发现:(1)辽宁经济转型效果呈现出波动上升态势,压力抵抗水平最高但呈现下滑趋势,突破潜力水平最低。(2)辽宁经济转型过程表现出周期性规律特征,2013年后处于重组-开发期,下一阶段将步入维持-释放期。(3)辽宁老工业基地压力抵抗水平东西空间分异现象明显,动力适应水平中部地区集聚特征显著,东部地区潜力突破水平低。(4)辽宁老工业基地经济转型效果呈现出中部高两翼低的空间格局,经济转型效果相似地区集聚显著。根据研究结果,针对老工业基地经济转型的规律特征,提出了未来转型发展对策建议。

Regional economic resilience provides a new perspective and framework for analyzing the process and law of economic transformation of old industrial bases. The paper analyzes the economic transformation process of Liaoning old industrial base from 2003 to 2018 by constructing the economic transformation analysis framework from the perspective of regional economic resilience, and discusses the evolution process and stage characteristics of Liaoning’s economic transformation. The results show that: 1) The effect of Liaoning’s economic transformation showed an upward trend of fluctuations, with the highest level of pressure resistance but a downward trend, and the lowest level of breakthrough potential. 2) The process of Liaoning’s economic transformation shows cyclical characteristics. It is currently in the reorganization-development period, and the next stage will enter the maintenance-release period. 3) The pressure resistance level of the Liaoning old industrial base has obvious spatial differentiation between the east and the west. The dynamic adaptation level has obvious agglomeration characteristics in central area, and the eastern region has a low level of potential breakthrough. 4) The Liaoning’s economic transformation effect presents a spatial pattern of high in the middle and low on both sides, and regions with similar effects of economic transformation are clustered significantly. According to the law and characteristics of the old industrial bases economic transformation, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the future transformation and development.