基于新陈代谢灰色线性回归组合模型的我国技术市场发展趋势预测

Forecast the Development Trend of China’s Technology Market based on the Metabolic Grey Linear Regression Combination Model

技术市场是我国现代市场体系和国家创新体系的重要组成部分,技术市场成交额的准确预测对于政府部门制定科技发展规划和政策措施具有重要意义.针对线性回归模型、GM(1,1)模型存在的固有缺陷和传统组合预测模型多次建模复杂性高的问题,通过构建新陈代谢灰色线性回归组合模型,实现了对我国技术市场成交额的动态预测.实证分析的结果表明,灰色线性回归组合模型较线性回归模型和GM(1,1)模型取得了更好的预测精度,而新陈代谢灰色线性回归组合模型较传统灰色线性回归组合模型表现更优,且预测结果显示我国技术市场成交额将继续保持快速增长态势,2020年有望增长32.37%.

The technology market is an important part of country’s modern market system and the national innovation system.The accurate forecast of technology market turnover is of great significance for the government to make science and technology development plan and policy measures.Aiming at the inherent defects of the linear regression model,GM(1,1)model and the high complexity of multiple modeling of the traditional combination prediction model,this paper achieves the dynamic prediction of the turnover of China’s technology market by constructing the metabolic grey linear regression model(i.e.,MGLRM).Empirical analysis results show that the grey linear regression model(i.e.,GLRM)has better prediction precision than that of the linear regression model and GM(1,1)model,while the MGLRM perform better than the GLRM.The prediction results obtained by the MGLRM show that the technology market turnover in China will continue to maintain rapid growth,and that is expected to grow by 32.37%in 2020.