贸易协定的对冲效应--基于GTAP模型的RCEP和CPTPP对比研究

Hedging Effect of Trade Agreements: A Comparative Analysis Based on RCEP and CPTPP

虽然CPTPP的经济总量远不及其前身TPP,但从其机制设计到影响力等方面看,仍然是重要的区域自由贸易协定,将对中国的宏观经济和社会福利产生一定程度的负面冲击。2020年11月15日签署的RCEP能否改善CPTPP给中国造成的负面经济效应?通过全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)分析RCEP与CPTPP各自逐步削减关税和技术性贸易壁垒后可能产生的经济效应,模拟结果表明,RCEP的关税和非关税自由化水平虽不足以完全实现对CPTPP的战略对冲,但RCEP对技术性贸易壁垒的削减有助于改善中国多项宏观经济指标。

CPTPP came into being after the United States announced its withdrawal from TPP. Although the economic aggregate and influence of CPTPP is far less than that of its predecessor, it is still the highest level of regional free trade agreement today, which will have a negative impact on China’s macro economy and social welfare to a certain extent.Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific Regional Free Trade Agreement(RCEP), in which China is a member, was concluded on November 15, 2020.So, will the RCEP, the world’s largest free trade agreement with the largest economic scale and the largest population affected, help China improve the negative economic effects brought by CPTPP?Therefore, this paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP) to compare and analyze the possible economic effects of RCEP and CPTPP when gradually reducing tariffs and technical barriers to trade(TBT).The simulation results show that the existing tariff and non-tariff liberalization rates of RCEP are insufficient to realize the strategic hedging against CPTPP.Moreover, RCEP tariff reduction cannot significantly improve China’s macroeconomic indicators, but the reduction of technical barriers to trade can.