中欧班列对中国城市全要素生产率的影响研究

The Impact of China Railway Express on Total Factor Productivity of Chinese Cities

中欧班列连通欧亚的属性导致其对中国经济增长和区域平衡发展的影响有别于一般铁路线路,为推动"一带一路"高质量建设,有必要厘清中欧班列和中国城市全要素生产率的关系。文章构造了双重差分模型实证检验中欧班列对中国城市全要素生产率的影响路径和影响效应,结果显示:第一,中欧班列的开通对于中国城市全要素生产率有显著的正向刺激作用,其"轴-辐"范围在200公里以上300公里以内;第二,中欧班列的开通会通过刺激技术创新提升对外开放水平从而间接提升中国城市全要素生产率,但是会通过提高制造业占比降低政府支出,从而抵消掉部分正向刺激效应;第三,中欧班列的开通对不同规模的企业和处于不同位置的企业影响效应较均衡,不会造成区域内企业强者更强,弱者更弱;第四,中欧班列对中小城市、对外开放水平高的城市以及中国中西部地带的城市影响效应更显著。当前中欧班列运行面临补贴退坡、逆全球化加深和地区竞争加剧的困境,未来需要提高城市对外开放的质量,拓展稳定的国际产品市场,优化中欧班列运行模式以维持班列的经济效益。

The characteristic of connecting Europe and Asia makes China Railway Express has different impacts on China’s economic growth and regional balanced development from those of domestic railway lines.It is necessary to clarify the relationship between China Railway Express and total factor productivity of Chinese cities to promote the Belt and Road Initiative.Difference-in-differences method has been adopted to empirically test the impact and possible impact channels of China Railway Express on total factor productivity of Chinese cities.The results show that:China Railway Express has a significant positive effect on total factor productivity of Chinese cities,and the radius of its"hub-and-spoke"is more than 200 kilometers and less than 300 kilometers.China Railway Express has indirect positive effect on total factor productivity through the channels of stimulating creation and openness of cities,whereas has indirect negative effect through the channels of promoting the agglomeration of manufacturing and decreasing government expenditure.The impact on enterprises of different sizes and positions is relatively balanced.China Railway Express has more significant impact on small and medium-sized cities,more open cities and middle and western cities in china.However,decrease in subsidies,de-globalization and governments’malignant competition are three unavoidable challenges confront to China Railway Express.At present,it is necessary to improve the quality of cities’openness,expand stable international product market,and optimize the operation mode of China Railway Express.