我国乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调发展及动态演进研究

Study on Coupling Coordinated Development and Dynamic Evolution of Rural Revitalization and New Urbanization in China

构建我国区域乡村振兴与新型城镇化的综合评价指标体系,实证测度我国2005-2018年间中国大陆30个省域的乡村振兴、新型城镇化战略水平以及两系统耦合协调度的时空演变与区域差异,使用面板格兰杰因果检验与面板VAR模型考察区域乡村振兴与新型城镇化的互动关系,结果表明:第一,我国乡村振兴、新型城镇化的发展呈东高、中平、西低的空间分布格局,中西部地区乡村振兴、新型城镇化水平增速高于东部地区,且呈区域收敛态势;第二,我国区域乡村振兴与新型城镇化的耦合协调度整体上呈逐年提升趋势,但区域不平衡状况较为显著,东部地区耦合协调性禀赋最优、中部地区改善幅度最大、西部地区处于劣势;第三,我国新型城镇化对乡村振兴的促进带动作用尚未显现,中部省域甚至存在抑制效应,乡村振兴对新型城镇化的影响均为正向,但作用强弱存在空间异质性。根据实证结论,分区域视角下乡村振兴与新型城镇化尚未实现双轮战略的融合发展。

This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of regional rural revitalization and new urbanization in China,empirically measures the spatial-temporal evolution and regional differences of the level of rural revitalization and new urbanization and the coupling coordination degree between them in 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities of China from 2005 to 2018,and uses panel Granger causality test and panel VAR model to investigate the interaction between regional rural revitalization and new urbanization.The results show that the development of rural revitalization and new urbanization in China shows a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east,intermediate in the middle and low in the west.The growth rate of rural revitalization and new urbanization in the central and western regions is higher than that in the eastern region,showing a trend of regional convergence.The coupling coordination degree of regional rural revitalization and new urbanization in China has improved year by year,but the regional imbalance is obvious.The eastern region has the best coupling coordination endowment,the central region has the largest improvement,and the western region is at a disadvantage.In China,the promotion and driving effect of new urbanization on rural revitalization has not yet appeared,and there are even inhibitory effects in the central region;the impact of rural revitalization on new urbanization is positive,but the effect is spatially heterogeneous.According to the empirical conclusion,the integrated development of rural revitalization and new urbanization has not been realized from the perspective of subregion.