广东省村镇系统生命力评价及影响因素分析

Evaluation of the Vitality of the Village and Town System and Analysis of the Influencing Factors in Guangdong Province

村镇系统是城乡综合体要素聚集与空间融合的重要载体。基于多维研究视角,引入生命力概念模型,构建村镇系统生命力评价体系,采用2008—2019年广东省20个城市村镇系统的空间面板数据,运用空间属性双聚类模型和ESDA方法剖析村镇系统生命力时空格局、区域类型和影响因素。结果显示:广东省村镇系统生命力整体呈上升趋势,并具有明显的空间分异特征,可划分为珠三角综合驱动成熟区、滨海功能拓展发育区、北部生态约束衰弱区和中部核心辐射稳健区四大区域。地形、交通、经济与政策、城市与人口、生态规制等对村镇系统生命力变化具有显著影响。其中市场与产业是影响村镇系统社会经济要素的核心,交通便捷程度尤其是高铁等快速交通网正深刻变革着村镇系统的空间格局,以城市群为代表的工业化和城镇化驱动力正在左右着村镇系统空间演化的未来走向。

The village and town system is an important carrier of urban and rural complex elements aggregation and spatial integration.Based on the multi-dimensional research perspective,the concept model of vitality is introduced to build the vitality evaluation system of the village and town system.The spatial panel data of 20 urban village systems in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019 are used to analyze the space pattern,regional type and influencing factors of the vitality of the village and town system by the methods of spatial attribute double cluster model and ESDA.The results show that the overall vitality of the village and town system in Guangdong Province is on the rise,and has obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.Therefore,the village and town system in Guangdong Province can be divided into four regions:the Pearl River Delta comprehensive drive mature region,the coastal function development region,the northern ecological constraint weak region and the central nuclear radiation stable region.Topography,transportation,economy and policy,city and population,ecological regulation and other factors will have a significant impact on the vitality of the village and town system.Among them,market and industry are the core factors affecting the socio-economic factors of the village and town system;the degree of traffic convenience,especially the high-speed rail and other rapid transit networks,is profoundly changing the spatial pattern of the village and town system.The driving force of industrialization and urbanization represented by the urban agglomeration is affecting the future direction of the spatial evolution of the village and town system.