中日韩自贸区经济效应与推进路径实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Economic Effect and Promotion Path of China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Area

当今世界经济增长持续放缓,全球经济秩序正经历大调整大变革,国际经贸规则加速重建,中美之间的经贸博弈将贯穿“十四五”时期甚至更长的历史阶段。在这样的经济大背景下,刺激并加速中日韩自贸区的建立意义尤为深远。通过对基于中日韩三国基本数据建立的贸易引力模型进行分析可以发现,中日韩三国之间均具有较大的贸易潜力,若建成FTA则可以更大程度地发挥自贸区优势,更好地开发三国之间的贸易潜力。在此基础上通过GTAP模型研究发现,在中国作为“轮轴国”时中日韩三国的整体福利提升水平最高。中日韩三国具有明显的产业结构互补优势,如果依托东盟“10+3”机制,选择优先建立产业自贸区、城市自贸区以及自由贸易先行区等路径,必将推动中日韩自贸区早日建成。

Nowadays,the world economic growth continues to slow down,the global economic order is greatly adjusted and changed,and the international economic and trade rules are rapidly rebuilt.The economic and trade game between China and the United States will run through the"14th Five-Year Plan"period and even longer historical stages.Under such economic background,it is of great significance to stimulate and accelerate the establishment of China Japan-ROK Free Trade Area.Based on the basic data of China,Japan and South Korea,a trade gravity model is established and analyzed.It can be found that China,Japan and South Korea all have great trade potential.If FTA is established,the advantages of free trade area can be used to a greater extent and the trade potential among the three countries can be better developed.On this basis,through GTAP model research,it is found that China,Japan and South Korea have the highest overall welfare improvement level only when China is the Axis.China,Japan and South Korea have obvious complementary advantages in industrial structure.If relying on ASEAN"10+3"mechanism,and choosing the paths of giving priority to the establishment of industrial free trade area,urban free trade area and pilot free trade area,it will surely promote the early establishment of China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Area.