云南省森林火灾风险综合评价及空间格局研究

Comprehensive assessment and spatial pattern study on forest fire risk in Yunnan Province

为有效揭示森林火灾风险的空间异质性和关联性,给林火防控资源配置和区域联动提供科学参考,综合考虑自然因素和人为因素,利用熵权法和综合指数法评估云南省森林火灾风险,继而利用空间自相关模型,分析森林火灾风险的空间格局。研究结果表明:云南省西部森林火灾风险高于东部地区,绝大部分地区处于较高风险和高风险等级,尤其是滇西北、滇西和滇中地区;火灾风险趋势线有2条,1条从云南省的西北部沿着中部延伸到东北部,呈现出两端高中间低的态势,另1条呈现南北低,中间高的态势;火灾风险在空间上呈现出空间集聚特征,但显著程度一般,森林火灾风险的局部相关性较弱。

In order to effectively reveal spatial heterogeneity and relevance of forest fire risk,and provide a scientific reference for allocation and regional linkage of fire prevention and control resources,take the natural factors and the human factors into consideration comprehensively,entropy method and comprehensive index method were used to assess forest fire risk in Yunnan province. Then,spatial pattern of the risk was studied by utilizing spatial auto correlation model. The results show that the risk of forest fire in western Yunnan is higher than that in the east,and most areas feature higher risk and high risk level,especially in northwest,west and central part. There are two fire risk trend lines,one extending from the northwest along the middle part to the northeast,which demonstrates a trend of high at both ends and low in the middle. The other one is low in the north and south,and high in the middle. The fire risk shows spatial agglomeration in space,but its degree of significance is average with weak local correlation.