成渝双城经济圈建设背景下四川省能源消费碳排放影响因素研究--基于LMDI模型视角

Research on the Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Carbon Emission in Sichuan Province under the Background of the Construction of Chengdu-Chongqing Double City Economic Circle: from the Perspective of LMDI Method

测算了四川省2000—2018年15种主要能源消费的碳排放量,运用LMDI分解法将碳排放量增量分解为能源结构效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应、经济发展水平效应与人口规模效应,基于Visual Studio集成开发工具编制了“能源系统碳排放影响因素分解软件”。研究结果表明:2000—2018年,能源强度效应与经济发展水平效应分别是减缓和促进区域碳排放增长的关键性因素;人口规模效应对四川省碳排放主要表现为正向的驱动作用,但产生的影响程度较小,几乎可以忽略不计;能源结构效应与产业结构效应在2012年之前以正向的驱动作用为主,2012年之后均呈现负向的抑制作用。因此四川省要发展低碳经济、加快构建“清洁能源示范省”,需要结合四川省发展现状从培育清洁低碳产业体系、推进清洁能源开发利用、加大低碳领域技术创新、加快推动电能替代、积极引导低碳理念等方面入手。

In this paper,the carbon emissions of 15 major energy consumptions in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2018 are calculated,and the LMDI method is used to decompose the amount of carbon emissions into energy structure effect,energy intensity effect,industrial structure effect,economic development effect and population scale effect.Based on the Visual Studio integrated development tool,the software for decomposing the influencing factors of carbon emission from energy system is developed.The results show that:from 2000 to 2018,the energy intensity effect and the economic development effect were the key factors to slow down and promote the growth of regional carbon emissions respectively;the population scale effect was mainly a positive driving force for Sichuan’s carbon emissions,but the impact was small and almost negligible;the energy structure effect and industrial structure effect were positive driving factors before 2012,and both turned into negative inhibitory factors after 2012.Therefore,in order to develop low carbon economy and accelerate the construction of“clean energy demonstration province”,Sichuan province needs to cultivate a clean and low-carbon industrial system,promote the development and utilization of clean energy,increase technological innovation in the field of low carbon,accelerate the promotion of electric energy substitution,and actively guide low-carbon concepts.