改革开放以来陕西能源消费碳排放演进特征及影响因素研究

Study on Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shaanxi Province Since the Reform and Opening-Up

对陕西能源消费及碳排放变动趋势进行分析,基于Kaya恒等式,采用LMDI建立陕西人均碳排放的因素分解模型,解析陕西1978—2018年人均碳排放的影响因素,定量分析了不同阶段经济发展因素、能源强度因素和能源结构因素对人均碳排放的贡献作用。结果表明,导致陕西人均碳排放量快速增长的主要因素是经济的快速发展,而能源强度因素和能源结构因素则起到了抑制作用,但贡献作用相对较小。根据人均碳排放呈现先缓慢增长再略微下降最后快速增长的演进特征,划分为三个阶段探讨各因素对人均碳排放的作用程度。最后提出二氧化碳减排的对策建议,推进实现陕西经济、资源、环境可持续发展。

The paper analyzes the trend of energy consumption and carbon emission in Shaanxi,based on Kaya identity,using LMDI method to establish factor decomposition model for per capita carbon emissions in Shaanxi,decomposes the influence factors of per capita carbon emissions in Shaanxi from 1978 to 2018.It then quantitatively analyzes the contribution of economic development factor,energy intensity factor and energy structure factor to per capita carbon emissions at different stages.The results show that rapid economic development is the most important factor for the continuous carbon emissions growth,while energy intensity factors and energy structure factors have played a role in suppression,but the contribution is relatively small.According to the evolution characteristics of per capita carbon emissions,which are slow growth first,then slightly decline,grow rapidly.The paper divides them into three stages and then explores the effect of each factor on per capita carbon emissions.Finally,the paper proposes suggestions for carbon emissions reduction,to promote sustainable development of economy,resources and environment in Shaanxi.