于LMDI和层次聚类的中国省级工业SO_(2)排放影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of SO_(2) Emission in China’s Provincial Industry Based on LMDI and Hierarchical Clustering

利用Kaya恒等式和LMDI模型,基于29个省份2008-2016年的面板数据,从全过程控制视角,进行了国家层面和省级层面的工业SO_(2)排放影响因素的分解,将其分解为三大因子、六大子效应,并对省份进行层次聚类。研究结果表明,经济规模效应是促进全国和各地区工业SO_(2)排放的主导因素,末端治理效应是抑制其排放的主导因素,不同省份各效应的作用程度及方向不同。以工业比重、高硫能源占比以及能源强度为指标,利用层次聚类将29个省份划分为六大区域,分析了各区域的特征和不同,提出了针对性的减排建议。相关部门需充分考虑各地区工业SO_(2)排放的特征与差异性,制定合适的减排政策。

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces from 2008 to 2016,this paper decomposes the influencing factors of industrial SO_(2)emission at the national and provincial levels from the perspective of whole process control by using Kaya identity and LMDI model,decomposing them into three factors and six sub effects,and clustering the provinces.The research results show that the economic scale effect is the leading factor in promoting SO_(2)emission nationwide and in various provinces,while the end-pipe treatment effect is the leading factor in restraining SO_(2)emission,and the degree and direction of the effects differ in different provinces.In addition,taking the industrial proportion,the proportion of high sulfur energy and the energy intensity as indicators,this paper divides 29 provinces into six regions by hierarchical clustering,analyzes the characteristics and differences of each region,and puts forward targeted emission reduction suggestions.Relevant departments should fully consider the characteristics and differences of industrial SO_(2)emission in various regions and formulate appropriate emission reduction policies.