结构性冲击对中国经济的影响--兼论新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响

The Impact of Structural Shocks on China’s Economy: Also on the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic

传染性疾病作为一种短暂而剧烈的结构性冲击对中国经济的影响以及政策选择因全球爆发的新冠肺炎疫情受到广泛关注。基于包含上下游生产结构、不同类型企业以及异质性金融摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型的研究发现,疫情冲击是对供给与需求同时产生影响的综合冲击,这一特征对评估其经济影响非常重要,并能解释疫情以来中国消费下滑幅度大于生产投资且恢复较慢的特征事实。结构性减税政策对经济的稳定效果显著优于宽松货币政策且福利损失更小,但两种政策组合使用可以带来更好的福利结果。这是因为货币扩张在稳定需求的同时恶化了信贷资源错配,结构性减税则部分纠正了信贷错配,而政策组合使用能充分发挥两种政策的优势。

The impact of infectious diseases as a short-term and severe structural shock on China*s economy and policy choices has attracted widespread attention because of the global outbreak of COVID-19.This paper is a study based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the upstream and downstream production structures,the different types of enterprises and the heterogeneous financial frictions.The findings show that the impact of the epidemic is a comprehensive impact on both productivity and demand at the same time,this feature is very important for e-valuating its economic effect,and it can explain the stylized fact that the extent of China's consumption has declined more than that of production investment and that the recovery is rather slower since the outbreak of the epidemic.The effect of the structural tax reduction policy on economic stability is significantly better than that of the loose monetary policy,and the welfare loss is smaller,but the combination of the two policies can bring better welfare results.This is because monetary expansion stabilizes the steady demand while worsening the mismatch of credit resources at the same time,however,the structural tax cuts can partially correct the credit mismatch,and the use of the policy combinations can give full play to the advantages of the two policies.